Nvidia has not moved on from OpenAI’s September run rate. The discount is still in the share price, and Monday made it wider. Nvidia closed Monday 12 October 2026 at $226.32, down $2.96, or 1.29 percent, from Friday’s $229.28, and $4.16 under Thursday’s $230.48. That Thursday close was 2.94 percent under Wednesday’s $237.47, after CNBC confirmed a roughly $50 billion September run rate against a widely reported $68 billion figure. Monday is also 5.40 percent under the 6 October record close of $239.24. The bull case is $296.21, the base is $233.83, and the bear case is $189.15.
The miss is the sessions after the headline. The stock is lower than the close that first absorbed the $50 billion figure. Microsoft has dated a primary inference role for its own Maia chips to 2027, and Monday’s cash session still sold Nvidia down. That is not a disclosed cut to this year’s training shipments. Closes here are Nasdaq prints saved before Tuesday’s cash open.
Key facts
- Monday 12 October 2026 closed at $226.32, down $2.96, or 1.29 percent, from Friday’s $229.28. Open $228.73, high $228.86, low $224.90, volume 70,690,250. Source: Nasdaq historical prices, downloaded 13 October 2026.
- Thursday 8 October closed at $230.48, down $6.99, or 2.94 percent, from Wednesday’s $237.47. The record close in the saved file is $239.24 on 6 October. Monday is 5.40 percent under that close and 7.01 percent under the $243.37 intraday high. Nasdaq’s summary lists that high and a low of $164.27 as the 52-week range.
- CNBC confirmed on 8 October that OpenAI told investors it hit roughly $50 billion in annualized revenue at the end of September, below a widely reported $68 billion figure. A person familiar said the $68 billion included gross partner revenue, and cited 77 percent total run-rate growth and 107 percent enterprise growth in the quarter. CNBC said the Financial Times was first to the $50 billion figure. Source: CNBC, 8 October 2026.
- The Next Web reported on 9 October that Bloomberg said OpenAI expects annualized revenue to reach or exceed $70 billion by the end of 2026, and that OpenAI declined to comment. It said the Financial Times had the September rate approaching $50 billion, and that the earlier $70 billion came from investors comparing OpenAI with Anthropic. Source: The Next Web, 9 October 2026.
- Nasdaq’s summary, fetched in the 13 October premarket, listed a market capitalization of $5,411,230,840,000 beside the $226.32 close. Divided through, that is about 23.91 billion shares. Monday’s $2.96 decline is about $70.77 billion on that count. Source: Nasdaq quote summary.
- Microsoft closed Monday at $541.15, up 1.14 percent from $535.07. The Nasdaq Composite closed at 27,245.90, down 0.44 percent from 27,366.17. Source: Nasdaq historical prices, downloaded 13 October 2026.
- Scott Guthrie, executive vice president, Cloud + AI, wrote on 12 October that Maia becomes the primary inference system for Microsoft products and services, with multi-gigawatt deployments starting in 2027, and that Maia 300 is expected to deliver 40 percent more tokens per megawatt than leading GPU-based systems. Source: Microsoft’s blog, 12 October 2026.
- At 7:52 a.m. ET on 13 October the Nasdaq info page still showed a premarket last of $224.5324, down 0.79 percent from Monday. That print is not a close and is not on the chart.
What just happened, and why the obvious reading is wrong
The obvious reading is that a several-day-old headline has already left the stock. It has not. Thursday’s $230.48 was the first official close after the $50 billion confirmation. Friday was $229.28. Monday was $226.32. None of those closes got back to Wednesday’s $237.47. The gap from that pre-report close is $11.15, or 4.70 percent.
The other obvious reading is that Monday gapped on Microsoft’s chip post. The open did not. Monday opened at $228.73, only $0.55, or 0.24 percent, under Friday. Satya Nadella’s post is timestamped 13:03 UTC on 12 October, 9:03 a.m. Eastern, before the cash open. The high was $228.86, still $0.42 under Friday, so the entire range sat below the prior close. From the open to the close the stock fell $2.41. The cash session did the day’s work.
Two higher revenue numbers are in the coverage, and the tape does not say which one was the benchmark. CNBC’s is $68 billion, gross partner revenue in the account of a person familiar, so the figure could sit beside Anthropic. The Thursday close-to-close move is 6.99 divided by 237.47, or 2.94 percent, which CNBC rounded to 3 percent. Morningstar’s account of the Financial Times put a $20 billion shortfall against a previously projected $70 billion.
The year-end line did not fill the gap. The Next Web, citing Bloomberg on Friday, said OpenAI expects to reach or exceed $70 billion by the end of 2026 and declined to comment. Friday still closed at $229.28. A comment that retired the September argument would have had to put Friday or Monday back through $230.48. Neither close did. FinanceFeeds already covered Thursday and Friday, with a bull of $243.37 and a bear of $221.37 off $229.28. This note does not reuse that pair.
Who is exposed
The listed name is Nvidia. The 13 October summary put the market value at $5,411,230,840,000 next to $226.32. Dividing gives 23,909,644,928 shares to the nearest share. Monday’s $2.96 times that count is about $70.77 billion. The same count times the $11.15 Wednesday gap is about $266.59 billion, and times the $12.92 record-close gap is about $308.91 billion. This is the summary divided by the close beside it, not a filing share count.
OpenAI is private. No fetched page gives it a share of Nvidia’s data-center revenue, and this note does not invent one. The record-close session is a separate FinanceFeeds note, with $5.773 trillion in that headline beside $239.24. Nasdaq’s summary also shows a one-year figure of $315.00, 39.18 percent above $226.32. The bull below does not reach it. An older scenario page near $227 used $169, $259 and $383. Those are not these cases. Monday’s PHLX file was not updated past Friday’s 12,572.42, so no Monday semiconductor-index print is used.
What Microsoft’s chip does not settle
On 12 October, Scott Guthrie, executive vice president, Cloud + AI, wrote that Microsoft will scale Azure Maia to multi-gigawatt deployments starting in 2027, “making Maia the primary inference system for Microsoft products and services.” The post says Maia 200 is already in production on workloads that run OpenAI models, and that Maia 300 is expected to deliver 40 percent more tokens per megawatt than leading GPU-based systems, with production deployments in 2027. Nadella posted that morning, “Today we are announcing our biggest bet yet on our own silicon,” and the next saved sentence calls Maia “the primary inference system for our own product and services.” The tweet’s 40 percent line is cut off by the link, so the percentage here is the blog’s. That is a 2027 inference plan for Microsoft’s own products, plus some production work already on Maia 200. It is not a cancellation of Nvidia’s training shipments. Monday’s split, Microsoft up 1.14 percent at $541.15 and Nvidia down 1.29 percent, is the first cash close after the post.
What the tape actually shows
Every close below is a Nasdaq historical print downloaded 13 October 2026. Monday is the last official close. From Wednesday to Monday, Nvidia fell 4.70 percent, Microsoft rose 2.15 percent, and the Composite fell 1.06 percent.
| Series | Wed 7 Oct | Thu 8 Oct | Fri 9 Oct | Mon 12 Oct | Wed to Mon |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia | $237.47 | $230.48 | $229.28 | $226.32 | -4.70% |
| Microsoft | $529.76 | $522.61 | $535.07 | $541.15 | +2.15% |
| Nasdaq Composite | 27,538.69 | 27,193.34 | 27,366.17 | 27,245.90 | -1.06% |
Thursday to Monday is the retracement test. Nvidia went from $230.48 to $226.32, another 1.80 percent down. Microsoft went from $522.61 to $541.15, up $18.54, or 3.55 percent. The Composite went from 27,193.34 to 27,245.90, up 0.19 percent. After the report, the index was slightly higher and Nvidia was lower. The September gap is not an index move the stock has already given back.
The record close is the third line. The highest close in the file, which starts 1 October 2025, is $239.24 on 6 October. The intraday high that day, $243.37, is the 52-week high on the quote page. Monday is 5.40 percent under the close and 7.01 percent under the high. A holder marking closes is $12.92 away, not $17.05.
The lowest close on that chart is $190.01 on 29 July 2026. The stock is off the October high, not back at the summer low. The bear case of $189.15 sits just under 29 July. It is not the $164.27 quote-page low.
What they said, and what they did not
OpenAI did not put $50 billion in a filing fetched here. CNBC said the company told investors, confirmed the figure, and said the Financial Times reported it first. This desk did not get the Financial Times page. Morningstar and The Next Web are the accounts used for what that paper and Bloomberg reported.
Gil Luria, managing director at D.A. Davidson, told MarketWatch the report “caused undue concern in the market,” because the figure near $70 billion was likely misrepresentative, and that “OpenAI is actually accelerating as it catches up with Anthropic at the enterprise market.” Both lines are in Morningstar’s 8 October republication. Evan Schlossman, a principal at Neostellar, called the report “a clarification of how revenue is reported, rather than a signal about underlying demand,” in the same piece.
Alex Kantrowitz, founder of Big Technology, is recorded on the Closing Bell transcript as saying, “Yes, it’s a simple accounting issue, but there’s also some sloppiness on Open AIs part.” He said a private company tied to public stocks should correct a number “$20 billion more than what your revenue is.” The transcript mangles the spelling. CNBC’s clip page names Alex Kantrowitz, and the line is on Podscripts’ 8 October transcript.
Jim Cramer, host of Mad Money on CNBC, posted: “Open AI reports revenues differently from Anthropic. This number isn’t apples to apples.” The post is @jimcramer on 8 October 2026. It does not say an order changed. Posts from Nvidia’s account over the following week returned nothing on OpenAI, Maia, or revenue, and no fetched page has a Jensen Huang line on the September figure. The Next Web said OpenAI declined to comment to Bloomberg.
The disclosure gap
No fetched source describes an enforcement action. The tension is that a private run rate moved a stock the summary valued near $5.41 trillion. Kantrowitz’s point was that the lack of a filing duty was not a reason to leave a figure about $20 billion high in a market where the public names were what traded. Monday did not close that point. Nvidia fell another 1.29 percent while the Composite fell 0.44 percent.
The new macro input is the customer’s own chip, not a rate decision. Microsoft dated the primary inference role to 2027 and said Maia 200 is already on some production workloads. That can lean on an inference multiple without a cancelled order. Reading Monday’s $2.96 as the full value of the shift is the same sort of error as reading Thursday’s $6.99 as proof that $20 billion of demand vanished. CNBC’s person familiar tied the $68 billion gap to gross partner revenue. The closes have not climbed back on that reading.
Bull, base, and bear from Monday’s close
The spot is Monday’s $226.32. The band uses the saved closes and runs to 31 December 2026. The sample is the last 90 daily log-returns, ending 12 October and beginning with the return off the 3 June close. The mean is 0.00058306. The sample standard deviation, n minus 1, is 0.02397629.
The horizon is 56 sessions from Tuesday 13 October through Thursday 31 December, including the Tuesday session that had not closed, and excluding Thanksgiving on 26 November and Christmas on 25 December. The bull is 226.32 times e to the power of 1.5 times 0.02397629 times the square root of 56, with no drift. That product is $296.2143, or $296.21. The bear is one standard deviation down and no drift, $189.1476, or $189.15. The base is drift only, 226.32 times e to the power of 0.00058306 times 56, or $233.8316, which is $233.83. Those are plus 30.88 percent, minus 16.42 percent, and plus 3.32 percent.
| Case | Price | Versus Monday’s $226.32 | What has to be true |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | $296.21 | +$69.89, or +30.88% | By 31 December the path is 1.5 standard deviations above Monday, with no drift. The $50 billion figure is treated as net of partner sales, and a year-end rate of at least $70 billion is still heard. Maia can remain a 2027 slide. This is not $315. |
| Base | $233.83 | +$7.51, or +3.32% | The recent mean daily log-return lasts 56 sessions. September stays an accounting gap, and Maia stays a 2027 plan. The close is above $230.48 and still short of $237.47. |
| Bear | $189.15 | -$37.17, or -16.42% | By 31 December the path is 1.0 standard deviation under Monday. That fits $50 billion read as lost demand, or Monday’s split read as a 2026 inference loss. It is just under the 29 July close of $190.01. |
The base is $3.35 above Thursday and $3.64 under Wednesday, so drift retraces the slip after the report and not the report day.
What happens next
Tuesday 13 October is the next official close. At 7:52 a.m. ET the premarket last was $224.5324, about $1.79 under Monday and a few cents under Monday’s $224.90 low. A Tuesday close under $226.32 extends Monday. A close above it is the first official step back toward $230.48, still $4.16 away. The chain is that quote: the overnight print was not a bid that defends Monday’s close.
Friday 16 October tests the report day a week on. The line is $230.48. The four sessions from Tuesday can close a $4.16 gap without a new disclosure, or add another $2.96 leg. A Friday close still under $230.48 means the September gap is open eight days after CNBC’s confirmation. A close through $230.48 and still under $237.47 would look like the base path, not the bull.
On 31 December 2026 the base path is about $233.83 if the mean log-return continues, still under the pre-report close. The $296.21 bull needs the volatility to resolve up. A company year-end rate of at least $70 billion can sit in that path and does not, by itself, produce the number. The $189.15 bear is already near 29 July. Maia 300 production is dated 2027, so it is outside the December sum. The last reported quarter is a separate note, and its revenue is not in this band.
Frequently asked questions
Is Nvidia still discounting OpenAI’s September run rate, or has the stock moved on?
It is still in the price. Monday closed at $226.32, which is $4.16 under the 8 October close of $230.48 after the roughly $50 billion run rate. The stock is also 5.40 percent under the record close of $239.24 on 6 October. A premarket last of $224.5324 at 7:52 a.m. ET on 13 October was lower, and that print is not a close. The bull at $296.21 and the bear at $189.15 both start from Monday.
What figure did OpenAI actually give for September?
CNBC confirmed on 8 October that OpenAI told investors it hit roughly $50 billion of annualized revenue at the end of September, below a widely reported $68 billion that a person familiar said included gross partner revenue. The same account cited 77 percent total run-rate growth and 107 percent enterprise growth. CNBC said the Financial Times was first. Morningstar’s account of that paper used a $70 billion projection instead. This piece did not fetch the Financial Times page.
Did the $70 billion year-end comment put the loss back?
No. The Next Web, citing Bloomberg on 9 October, said OpenAI expects annualized revenue to reach or exceed $70 billion by year-end, and that OpenAI declined to comment. Friday closed at $229.28 and Monday at $226.32, both under Thursday’s $230.48. The year-end line did not lift those closes back through the report day. The base at $233.83 would clear Thursday and would still sit under Wednesday’s $237.47.
How far is the stock from the record?
Monday’s $226.32 is $12.92, or 5.40 percent, under the 6 October record close of $239.24. It is $17.05, or 7.01 percent, under that day’s $243.37 intraday high, which is also the 52-week high on Nasdaq’s page. About 5 percent below the record fits the close, not the high. On the share count from the 13 October market-cap line, $12.92 is about $308.91 billion. That count is not a 10-K figure.
Does Microsoft’s Maia chip remove the inference demand behind Nvidia?
Not on these pages. Guthrie dated multi-gigawatt Maia deployments, and a primary inference role for Microsoft’s products, to 2027. Maia 300 production begins in 2027, while Maia 200 is already running some workloads that include OpenAI models. That is a shift inside Microsoft. It is not a disclosed cut to Nvidia’s training book this quarter. Monday was the first cash close after the post, with Microsoft up 1.14 percent and Nvidia down 1.29 percent.
Where do the bull, base, and bear prices come from?
They carry Monday’s $226.32 to 31 December 2026 using the last 90 daily log-returns. The bull, $296.21, is 1.5 standard deviations up, with no drift. The bear, $189.15, is 1.0 standard deviation down, with no drift. The base, $233.83, is the mean log-return alone. The daily standard deviation is 0.02397629 across 56 sessions. They are not $315, not $243.37 and $221.37, and not $169 and $383.
This is not financial advice.